The beauty of the Manhattan Beach home market is that apples-to-apples comparisons are easy to come by when studying appreciation.
Thanks to easily defined areas like the Tree Section, East Manhattan Beach, or the Sand Section with similar sized lots, a simple street grid, and clearly defined building standards, one can pull sections of the home market to see how certain pockets are growing short and long term.
This week I am going to cover a clearly defined neighborhood: The North Manhattan Beach 400-Block. More specifically, the 400-block with 30 x 90 (2,700 sq. ft.) lots that are typical three-story, new construction homes.
New Construction Sales Since 2020 – 2022
The home craze during the pandemic / low interest rate environment set new construction home prices during the peak strength of our local South Bay marketplace. There were three new construction sales that set the bar on pricing which you can see below:
- 445 32nd Street
5-beds, 5-baths, 4,243 sq. ft., 2020-built
SOLD: $4,530,000 (Sept. 2020)
This custom spec was put under contract a couple of months before construction completion and was acquired when interest rates got into the low 3% range. Certainly, a wow sale in 2020 as the market was beginning to take flight through 2022.
- 453 31st Street
5-beds, 6-baths, 4,302 sq. ft., 2020-built
SOLD: $4,375,000 (Apr. 2021)
A long-on-the-market listing that debuted during the scariest part of the pandemic (March 2020) for $4.795M, eventually closed 13 months later slightly below the sale on 32nd Street. While not as well-finished as 32nd (thus the lower price), it helped buoy the value of new construction in the north 400-block with two sales in half a year.
- 420 31st Street
5-beds, 6-baths, 4,502 sq. ft., 2017-built
SOLD: $5,856,550 (Feb. 2022)
Fast-forward to 2022, a newer construction home built in 2017 was resold for a huge, over $1 million premium to both 2020/2021 sales at $5.85M in just four days. Super-fast and a fabulous result…and that was kind of what happened at the top of the market in 2022.
So, during the pandemic, the north 400-block saw sales of $4.53M, $4.375M, and $5.85M…which really set the tone for $4 million into $5 million valuations.
As the market cooled in 2023 thanks to higher interest rates, we saw zero on-market action in the 2023 year.
New Construction Sales in 2024
Since the market went quiet for a year, but values stayed somewhat stable due to lack of inventory, it was a big question if new construction in this pocket had remained flat, depreciated, or continued its appreciation ascent.
Cue the custom spec on 433 29th Steet in the 2024 spring:
- 433 29th Street
5-beds, 6-baths, 4,273 sq. ft., 2024-built
SOLD: $6,200,000 (May 2024)
This home was a wonderfully executed coastal modern that was snapped up below asking price just two weeks. So, while there were no sales in 2023, the spring market this year gave a $350k premium for new construction about two years later.
- 457 28th Street
5-beds, 6-baths, 4,287 sq. ft., 2024-built
SOLD: $5,900,000 (June 2024)
Just a month later, another spec was able to land a $5.9M price further buoying the new construction market to the very high $5s / low $6 million range.
Final Thoughts & New Lot Listing
All in all, the new construction market for the north Manhattan Beach 400-block has gone from the mid $4 million to the low $6 millions, a jump of over 35% in the last five years.
Not too shabby.
Now, the developer of 433 29th Street has debuted a new lot listing with ready to build plans. See the new listing that came to market this week:
- Dirt Lot – 437 29th Street
4,300 sq. ft. approved plans included
ASKING: $3,975,000
If one were to assume $650 per square foot to build the plans, then $.2795M + the $3.975M asking price would total $6,770,000 after a couple year building process.
With the neighboring property selling for $6.2 million, do you think they’ll land their asking price? Time will tell.
Richard Haynes
DRE: 01779425
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The Richard Haynes Real Estate ShowA leader in South Bay real estate for the better part of a decade, Richard thrives as an advisor to his clients with over $248 million in sales as a broker or investment principal at his boutique agency, Haynes. Richard is known for his keen local market insights which have been featured in the L.A. Times, The Street, and Forbes, along with his weekly South Bay real estate blog. [read more]